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Salah satu alasan sinis yang diberikan investor untuk menghindari pasar saham adalah menyamakannya dengan kasino. “Ini hanya permainan judi besar,” kata beberapa orang. “Semuanya sudah dicurangi.” Pernyataan-pernyataan tersebut mungkin cukup benar untuk meyakinkan beberapa orang yang belum meluangkan waktu untuk mempelajarinya lebih jauh.

Akibatnya, mereka berinvestasi pada obligasi (yang mungkin jauh lebih berisiko daripada yang mereka perkirakan, dengan peluang mendapatkan imbalan yang jauh lebih kecil) atau tetap menggunakan uang tunai. Hasil dari keuntungan mereka sering kali membawa bencana. Inilah alasan mereka salah:

1) Ya, ada unsur perjudian, tapi-
Bayangkan sebuah kiatoto di mana peluang jangka panjang dicurangi untuk menguntungkan Anda, bukan merugikan Anda. Bayangkan juga bahwa semua permainan itu seperti black jack dan bukan mesin slot, di mana Anda dapat menggunakan apa yang Anda ketahui (Anda adalah pemain berpengalaman) dan keadaan saat ini (Anda telah memperhatikan kartunya) untuk meningkatkan peluang Anda. . Sekarang Anda memiliki perkiraan pasar saham yang lebih masuk akal.

Banyak orang akan sulit mempercayainya. Pasar saham tidak mengalami kemajuan selama 10 tahun, keluh mereka. Paman Joe saya kehilangan banyak uang di pasar, kata mereka. Meskipun pasar kadang-kadang melemah dan bahkan mungkin berkinerja buruk untuk jangka waktu yang lama, sejarah pasar menceritakan kisah yang berbeda.

Dalam jangka panjang (dan ya, terkadang jangka panjangnya sangat panjang), saham adalah satu-satunya kelas aset yang secara konsisten mampu mengalahkan inflasi. Alasannya jelas: seiring berjalannya waktu, perusahaan yang baik tumbuh dan menghasilkan uang; mereka dapat meneruskan keuntungan tersebut kepada pemegang sahamnya dalam bentuk dividen dan memberikan keuntungan tambahan dari harga saham yang lebih tinggi.

2) Investor perorangan terkadang menjadi korban praktik yang tidak adil, namun ia juga mempunyai beberapa keuntungan yang mengejutkan.
Tidak peduli berapa banyak peraturan dan perundang-undangan yang disahkan, tidak akan pernah mungkin untuk sepenuhnya menghilangkan insider trading, akuntansi yang meragukan, dan praktik ilegal lainnya yang mengorbankan orang-orang yang kurang informasi. Namun sering kali, memperhatikan laporan keuangan dengan cermat akan mengungkap permasalahan yang tersembunyi. Terlebih lagi, perusahaan yang baik tidak harus terlibat dalam penipuan—mereka terlalu sibuk menghasilkan keuntungan nyata.

Investor individu memiliki keuntungan besar dibandingkan manajer reksa dana dan investor institusi, karena mereka dapat berinvestasi di perusahaan kecil dan bahkan perusahaan MicroCap yang tidak dapat disentuh oleh para kahuna besar tanpa melanggar peraturan SEC atau perusahaan.

Meskipun perusahaan-perusahaan kecil ini sering kali lebih berisiko, mereka juga bisa menjadi sumber keuntungan terbesar.

3) Ini adalah satu-satunya permainan di kota.
Selain berinvestasi pada komoditas berjangka atau memperdagangkan mata uang, yang sebaiknya diserahkan kepada para profesional, pasar saham adalah satu-satunya cara yang dapat diakses secara luas untuk mengembangkan sarang Anda agar mampu mengalahkan inflasi. Hampir tidak ada orang yang menjadi kaya dengan berinvestasi pada obligasi, dan tidak ada orang yang menjadi kaya dengan menaruh uangnya di bank.
Mengetahui ketiga permasalahan utama ini, bagaimana investor individu dapat menghindari pembelian pada waktu yang salah atau menjadi korban praktik penipuan?

Berikut enam tindakan yang dapat Anda mulai:

1) Pertimbangkan rasio P/E pasar secara keseluruhan dan saham Anda pada khususnya.
Seringkali, Anda mengabaikan pasar dan hanya fokus membeli perusahaan bagus dengan harga pantas. Namun ketika harga saham melampaui pendapatannya, biasanya akan terjadi penurunan. Bandingkan rasio P/E historis dengan rasio saat ini untuk mendapatkan gambaran tentang apa yang berlebihan, namun perlu diingat bahwa pasar akan mendukung rasio P/E yang lebih tinggi ketika suku bunga rendah.

2) Ketika inflasi dan suku bunga melonjak, pasar sering kali akan anjlok…waspada.
Suku bunga yang tinggi memaksa perusahaan yang bergantung pada pinjaman untuk membelanjakan lebih banyak uang mereka guna meningkatkan pendapatan. Pada saat yang sama, pasar uang dan obligasi mulai memberikan suku bunga yang lebih menarik. Jika investor dapat memperoleh 8% hingga 12% dana pasar uang, kecil kemungkinannya mereka mengambil risiko berinvestasi di pasar.

Tentu saja, penurunan tajam juga bisa terjadi pada saat suku bunga rendah. Carilah tanda bahaya dalam berita keuangan, seperti awal mula kemerosotan perumahan baru-baru ini atau krisis kredit internasional. Jangan biarkan ketakutan dan ketidakpastian menghalangi Anda untuk berpartisipasi. Ingatlah bahwa pasar lebih sering naik daripada turun. Bahkan pengatur waktu pasar yang buruk pun menghasilkan uang jika mereka membeli perusahaan yang bagus.

3) Kerjakan pekerjaan rumah Anda.
Pelajari neraca dan laporan tahunan perusahaan yang Anda minati. Paling tidak, ketahuilah berapa banyak Anda membayar untuk pendapatan perusahaan, berapa banyak utang yang dimilikinya, dan seperti apa gambaran arus kasnya. Baca berita terkini tentang perusahaan dan pastikan Anda memahami dengan jelas mengapa Anda mengharapkan pendapatan perusahaan meningkat.
Jika Anda tidak mengerti ceritanya, jangan membelinya. Tapi, setelah Anda membeli sahamnya, pantau terus beritanya dengan cermat. Jangan panik karena sedikit berita negatif dari waktu ke waktu. Hampir setiap perusahaan terkadang mengalami kemunduran.

Namun jika terdapat bukti serius adanya penipuan atau penurunan prospek, segera bertindak. Menyatakan kembali laba sering kali merupakan tanda yang jelas bahwa praktik akuntansi suatu perusahaan tidak berjalan baik.

4) Bersabarlah.
Memprediksi arah pasar atau suatu isu dalam jangka panjang jauh lebih mudah daripada memprediksi apa yang akan terjadi besok, minggu depan, atau bulan depan. Pedagang harian dan pedagang pasar jangka pendek jarang berhasil dalam jangka panjang. Jika harga perusahaan Anda di bawah harga dan pendapatannya meningkat, pasar pada akhirnya akan memperhatikannya.

5) Manfaatkan kepanikan berkala untuk memuat saham yang benar-benar Anda sukai dalam jangka panjang.
Hal ini tidak mudah untuk dilakukan, namun mengikuti saran ini akan sangat meningkatkan keuntungan Anda.
6) Ingatlah bahwa kali ini tidak berbeda.
Setiap kali pasar mulai melakukan hal-hal gila, orang-orang akan mengatakan bahwa situasinya belum pernah terjadi sebelumnya. Mereka akan membenarkan P/E yang keterlaluan dengan membicarakan paradigma baru. Atau, mereka akan melakukan penyelamatan saham pada saat yang paling buruk dengan bersikeras bahwa saat ini, akhir dunia sudah dekat.

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